Got the 3rd quarter outlook and a massive option suggestion for the 2nd half of 2021 from Betting Resource. If you are not familiar, these guys made a killing to their followers with options since 2020. I even posted some here...Blackberry and Root (those weren't even the big ones) compared the plays in 2020. Below is the copy paste of their email that was sent last week which covers his 3rd quarter outlook and as well as massive option play suggestion in Gold. The way he suggests is that by accumulating positions more than suggested so that you can cash out some positions early. When you do this, whatever you leave towards the target becomes risk free. He sometimes changes the target on the go to cash out early or hold longer for bigger than suggested target. Either way, if you accumulate positions with these plays, cannot go wrong. This guy has been spot with almost everything he called about the market since march 2020. He is not the best writer but the what he says is worth the listen if you like to make money in the market.
2021 Gold/Silver 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter
In the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter gold will start its next rally and should peak in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter sometime in November. Many pundits have been calling Gold and Silver rally for the past 8 months without a timeline and without realizing how these metals consolidate. Unlike most equity, Gold and Silver are some of the few with quarterly option expiry which falls on the final day of March, June, September and July. The volume on these quarterly expiry has been very high throughout the year. In most cases investors can buy and sell these quarterly options as far as 1 year out. After the Pandemic crash, Gold and Silver rallied from mid march to Aug 7th. Last august billions worth of over priced calls were sold for expiry far as June 30th. Prices have been consolidating for these calls to expire worthless. Gold and Silver are currently at or near final phase of consolidation. Perhaps it could move few points lower between now and two weeks into July but if you want to go long, this is the right time to start accumulating your positions. Prices may or may not dip a little more between now and mid July but if it dips, everything would be gained back rapidly once it gets going later in July. There are many tickers associated with silver and gold for options but the best bang for the buck is with the SILJ and GDXJ since these funds focus on low market cap companies.
I expect Gold and Silver to take off soon after June 30th quarterly option expiry. There is a looming weak or two long overall market correction in July which may cause the metals to dip briefly but will bounce hard quickly. All the writings are on the wall for gold and silver to lift off soon after June 30 options expiry. Many who exited the cryptos will come into gold. Price may dance plus or minus few points from today's price from now to 1 or 2 weeks into July. Then it will fly until late august before consolidating for 2 weeks. There will be minor corrections along the way but each correction will be followed up with even bigger gain. Expect the biggest gains to happen between mid September to mid November. By mid November this rally should peak before the next consolidation process begins that could last a quarter or two or a year. Market makers will sell a lot of overpriced calls at the rally's peak and that is when we will cash most of our positions, but we will also buy extra positions to cash in early. Late November to mid December the price should bounce around the peak and should come down as the December 31th quarterly approaches.
In this rally gold should peak around $2500 to $2600 and silver around $45 to $50--possibly even a bit higher. I will focus on the SILJ and GDXJ tickers since they have the best upside for options.
My SILJ and GDXJ safe target for this rally before the year end is $35 and $95 respectively. Extreme target is $45 and $150. If $30 for SILJ and $80 for GDXJ are reached by 1st week of September, extreme target is very likely by November.
Below are my suggestions for options. Be sure to play the insurance plays as well. My suggestion is for 100 contracts but you can buy whatever you can afford. The insurance contracts are minimum recommended ratio for the 100 contracts. If you can afford, you can play the insurance at equal number of contracts. Between now and Mid July, it is possible that the price of these options could fall below my suggested bids, but don’t wait for it. Instead start accumulating now at or better than suggested price, then add more to average down if prices go down.
Volatility on Options are highest during the 1st hour of the market day. You may see much higher bid prices for low quantity around this time. Leave your bid at suggested price instead of paying ask price. If it fills and if price falls, you can either add more to average down or simply wait for the take off in July. You shouldn’t pay more than the suggested price for these options.
SILJ Nov 19'21 $23 Call. Suggested price: 50 cents or better. 100 contracts.
Cost of 100 contracts at 50 cents is $5000
Sell Target $10. Proceeds from selling 100 contracts at $10 is $100,000
GDXJ Nov 19'21 $70. Suggested Price: 50 cents or better. 100 contracts
Cost of 100 contracts at 50 cents is $5000
Sell Target $20. Proceeds from selling 100 contracts at $20 is $150,000
Note: Keep an eye on the $65 strike. If this comes anywhere close to 50 cents some time before mid july, it is highly recommended that you take positions by doubling up. This will present great opportunity to take profit early and ride the rest risk free to the target.
Early profit taking insurance:
SILJ Nov 19'21 $20 Call 80 cents or better. 50 contracts
Cost of 50 contracts at 80 is $4000
Sell Target $6. Proceeds from selling 50 contracts at $6 is $30,000
GDXJ Nov 19'21 $55 call $2.10 or better. 20 contracts.
Cost of 20 contracts at $2.10 is $4200
Sell Target $20. Proceeds from selling 20 contracts at $20 is $30,000
Note: If The price of these insurance plays falls by 50% before mid July, it is highly recommended that you double up here as well.
Overall in August and September there should many easy short term lotto options that are high risk high reward that we will play on individual companies not just related to metals but many other sectors. Stay tuned.
Overall Market Out Look for 2nd half of 2021 (3rd and 4th quarter)
I am bullish once again. The final phase of the 40 year bull market and the melt up phase will continue for the time being as we approach the next catalyst. The big recession is unlikely to begin this year. We should closely watch the actions of the feds and policies to monitor the situation for possible trigger in December or early 2022. Feds already moved down the rate hike target from 2024 for to 2023. They will probably move it down again in a few months. Eventually the catalyst that will trigger the recession can happen sometime in 2022 or 2023--before or after the mid term elections in USA. It can also be prolonged. Can't say exactly when until few months leading up to it. My quarterly updates will continue to monitor the situation. For the moment rapid economic expansion will continue. As we have seen in the history, rapid expansion will eventually end in recession but I am very bullish for the third and 4th quarter of 2021. There is however a looming correction by mid July that could last a few days to a week. June 30th quarterly options expiry is a big one and expect some erratic moves in many equity--It could be turbulent until mid July. For the next two quarters growth, tech, gold, silver, semiconductors should come out of consolidation and rally hard to new highs. For the main indices, Nasdaq will resume its rally from consolidation for multiple new highs. Each mini correction will be followed up with new high. August through November is going to present insanely good opportunities to make money with options. I will cover some very good plays for you guys, stay tuned!
In previous outlooks I mentioned that cybersecurity/hacking to play a big role during the next catalyst like the virus played in the previous flash crash in march 2020. When the real crash begins, the recession period should last 1 to few years. In the past, big wars were used to come out of recession. But now the elites' portfolios are far more diverse rather than depending only on certain sectors. Therefore, big scale real wars are not good news for them in a consumer driven global economy; invisible wars like pandemic, cyber pandemic etc are far better. One important thing to keep an eye on is aliens/ufo and how it will play out since it is perfect for invisible war. Don't worry, we do not have any real threats from aliens anytime soon. If you hear about any threats, it will be made up. Based on how things are brewing in the policies and in the world economic forum, there is a very good possibility that the population could be made to believe that there are potential alien attacks/threats--it will all be manufactured by humans if it happens. This will be much easier to pull off than the pandemic. Population will not have much resource in this regard and they will have to rely on so called experts.
Many wondered why the declassification of ufo files were included in the covid relief bills last year and questioned what it has to do with the pandemic—well, it has everything to do with the economy. When the declassification of the files happen, they will leave things vague and will not deny or confirm alien/ufo existence or visitation--naturally the talking heads will control the narrative both ways and eventually one side will get stronger as people are conditioned. As an investor, all you need to remember is that all blurry videos or so called potential evidence in the files are all military or scientific experiments/activities but what matters for your portfolio is public perception. If the majority of the public are convinced that there is potential alien threat, as investors we could make a lot of money during the recession buy picking up the right stocks and options. If they do not straight up deny aliens/ufo's in the declassification process, they are opening a new can of worms with some future incidents such as attacks on communication or other satellites, space stations etc that can be blamed on unknown forces. Space is getting crowded with new satellites and there are many new older satellites that are disposable to replace with new ones. Intentional destruction of those satellites can be narrated to the population as something else. Creating panic among the gullible social media/msm starving population is very easy by cutting off communication channels briefly to blame the aliens. This may seem far stretched but all the writings are on the wall for potential (manufactured) alien threats. Since the pandemic started, numerous SPACE related ETFs and companies have been started and a lot of big money is flowing into them just like how new PHARMA/Vaccine companies/etfs were started in 2018 and 2019 leading up to the pandemic. This doesn't mean you should put your money into all these new things that are popping up. If the catalyst begins and if the narrative takes shape, we will pick some names to invest just like we did with novavax and moderna for the vaccines in march 2020. For now, we will simply monitor the situation. When/if the time comes, we will strike. This can have a combined effect with the cyber security issues and the commodity boom cycle that I covered in the previous outlooks.
As for near term, there is going to be great opportunity with options in the next quarters. First half of this year didn't present many opportunities due to many sectors consolidating as value stocks was in the driving seat. Those consolidating sectors will now take the driver seat for the second half of the year.
Kind Regards,
Betting Resource
2021 Gold/Silver 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] and 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter
In the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] quarter gold will start its next rally and should peak in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter sometime in November. Many pundits have been calling Gold and Silver rally for the past 8 months without a timeline and without realizing how these metals consolidate. Unlike most equity, Gold and Silver are some of the few with quarterly option expiry which falls on the final day of March, June, September and July. The volume on these quarterly expiry has been very high throughout the year. In most cases investors can buy and sell these quarterly options as far as 1 year out. After the Pandemic crash, Gold and Silver rallied from mid march to Aug 7th. Last august billions worth of over priced calls were sold for expiry far as June 30th. Prices have been consolidating for these calls to expire worthless. Gold and Silver are currently at or near final phase of consolidation. Perhaps it could move few points lower between now and two weeks into July but if you want to go long, this is the right time to start accumulating your positions. Prices may or may not dip a little more between now and mid July but if it dips, everything would be gained back rapidly once it gets going later in July. There are many tickers associated with silver and gold for options but the best bang for the buck is with the SILJ and GDXJ since these funds focus on low market cap companies.
I expect Gold and Silver to take off soon after June 30th quarterly option expiry. There is a looming weak or two long overall market correction in July which may cause the metals to dip briefly but will bounce hard quickly. All the writings are on the wall for gold and silver to lift off soon after June 30 options expiry. Many who exited the cryptos will come into gold. Price may dance plus or minus few points from today's price from now to 1 or 2 weeks into July. Then it will fly until late august before consolidating for 2 weeks. There will be minor corrections along the way but each correction will be followed up with even bigger gain. Expect the biggest gains to happen between mid September to mid November. By mid November this rally should peak before the next consolidation process begins that could last a quarter or two or a year. Market makers will sell a lot of overpriced calls at the rally's peak and that is when we will cash most of our positions, but we will also buy extra positions to cash in early. Late November to mid December the price should bounce around the peak and should come down as the December 31th quarterly approaches.
In this rally gold should peak around $2500 to $2600 and silver around $45 to $50--possibly even a bit higher. I will focus on the SILJ and GDXJ tickers since they have the best upside for options.
My SILJ and GDXJ safe target for this rally before the year end is $35 and $95 respectively. Extreme target is $45 and $150. If $30 for SILJ and $80 for GDXJ are reached by 1st week of September, extreme target is very likely by November.
Below are my suggestions for options. Be sure to play the insurance plays as well. My suggestion is for 100 contracts but you can buy whatever you can afford. The insurance contracts are minimum recommended ratio for the 100 contracts. If you can afford, you can play the insurance at equal number of contracts. Between now and Mid July, it is possible that the price of these options could fall below my suggested bids, but don’t wait for it. Instead start accumulating now at or better than suggested price, then add more to average down if prices go down.
Volatility on Options are highest during the 1st hour of the market day. You may see much higher bid prices for low quantity around this time. Leave your bid at suggested price instead of paying ask price. If it fills and if price falls, you can either add more to average down or simply wait for the take off in July. You shouldn’t pay more than the suggested price for these options.
SILJ Nov 19'21 $23 Call. Suggested price: 50 cents or better. 100 contracts.
Cost of 100 contracts at 50 cents is $5000
Sell Target $10. Proceeds from selling 100 contracts at $10 is $100,000
GDXJ Nov 19'21 $70. Suggested Price: 50 cents or better. 100 contracts
Cost of 100 contracts at 50 cents is $5000
Sell Target $20. Proceeds from selling 100 contracts at $20 is $150,000
Note: Keep an eye on the $65 strike. If this comes anywhere close to 50 cents some time before mid july, it is highly recommended that you take positions by doubling up. This will present great opportunity to take profit early and ride the rest risk free to the target.
Early profit taking insurance:
SILJ Nov 19'21 $20 Call 80 cents or better. 50 contracts
Cost of 50 contracts at 80 is $4000
Sell Target $6. Proceeds from selling 50 contracts at $6 is $30,000
GDXJ Nov 19'21 $55 call $2.10 or better. 20 contracts.
Cost of 20 contracts at $2.10 is $4200
Sell Target $20. Proceeds from selling 20 contracts at $20 is $30,000
Note: If The price of these insurance plays falls by 50% before mid July, it is highly recommended that you double up here as well.
Overall in August and September there should many easy short term lotto options that are high risk high reward that we will play on individual companies not just related to metals but many other sectors. Stay tuned.
Overall Market Out Look for 2nd half of 2021 (3rd and 4th quarter)
I am bullish once again. The final phase of the 40 year bull market and the melt up phase will continue for the time being as we approach the next catalyst. The big recession is unlikely to begin this year. We should closely watch the actions of the feds and policies to monitor the situation for possible trigger in December or early 2022. Feds already moved down the rate hike target from 2024 for to 2023. They will probably move it down again in a few months. Eventually the catalyst that will trigger the recession can happen sometime in 2022 or 2023--before or after the mid term elections in USA. It can also be prolonged. Can't say exactly when until few months leading up to it. My quarterly updates will continue to monitor the situation. For the moment rapid economic expansion will continue. As we have seen in the history, rapid expansion will eventually end in recession but I am very bullish for the third and 4th quarter of 2021. There is however a looming correction by mid July that could last a few days to a week. June 30th quarterly options expiry is a big one and expect some erratic moves in many equity--It could be turbulent until mid July. For the next two quarters growth, tech, gold, silver, semiconductors should come out of consolidation and rally hard to new highs. For the main indices, Nasdaq will resume its rally from consolidation for multiple new highs. Each mini correction will be followed up with new high. August through November is going to present insanely good opportunities to make money with options. I will cover some very good plays for you guys, stay tuned!
In previous outlooks I mentioned that cybersecurity/hacking to play a big role during the next catalyst like the virus played in the previous flash crash in march 2020. When the real crash begins, the recession period should last 1 to few years. In the past, big wars were used to come out of recession. But now the elites' portfolios are far more diverse rather than depending only on certain sectors. Therefore, big scale real wars are not good news for them in a consumer driven global economy; invisible wars like pandemic, cyber pandemic etc are far better. One important thing to keep an eye on is aliens/ufo and how it will play out since it is perfect for invisible war. Don't worry, we do not have any real threats from aliens anytime soon. If you hear about any threats, it will be made up. Based on how things are brewing in the policies and in the world economic forum, there is a very good possibility that the population could be made to believe that there are potential alien attacks/threats--it will all be manufactured by humans if it happens. This will be much easier to pull off than the pandemic. Population will not have much resource in this regard and they will have to rely on so called experts.
Many wondered why the declassification of ufo files were included in the covid relief bills last year and questioned what it has to do with the pandemic—well, it has everything to do with the economy. When the declassification of the files happen, they will leave things vague and will not deny or confirm alien/ufo existence or visitation--naturally the talking heads will control the narrative both ways and eventually one side will get stronger as people are conditioned. As an investor, all you need to remember is that all blurry videos or so called potential evidence in the files are all military or scientific experiments/activities but what matters for your portfolio is public perception. If the majority of the public are convinced that there is potential alien threat, as investors we could make a lot of money during the recession buy picking up the right stocks and options. If they do not straight up deny aliens/ufo's in the declassification process, they are opening a new can of worms with some future incidents such as attacks on communication or other satellites, space stations etc that can be blamed on unknown forces. Space is getting crowded with new satellites and there are many new older satellites that are disposable to replace with new ones. Intentional destruction of those satellites can be narrated to the population as something else. Creating panic among the gullible social media/msm starving population is very easy by cutting off communication channels briefly to blame the aliens. This may seem far stretched but all the writings are on the wall for potential (manufactured) alien threats. Since the pandemic started, numerous SPACE related ETFs and companies have been started and a lot of big money is flowing into them just like how new PHARMA/Vaccine companies/etfs were started in 2018 and 2019 leading up to the pandemic. This doesn't mean you should put your money into all these new things that are popping up. If the catalyst begins and if the narrative takes shape, we will pick some names to invest just like we did with novavax and moderna for the vaccines in march 2020. For now, we will simply monitor the situation. When/if the time comes, we will strike. This can have a combined effect with the cyber security issues and the commodity boom cycle that I covered in the previous outlooks.
As for near term, there is going to be great opportunity with options in the next quarters. First half of this year didn't present many opportunities due to many sectors consolidating as value stocks was in the driving seat. Those consolidating sectors will now take the driver seat for the second half of the year.
Kind Regards,
Betting Resource
